Monday, October 12, 2009

Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused?

By David Gately

Ratings-Based racing is something relatively new to most Australian punters but is here to stay so we need to get a handle on it. The major difference between ratings-based racing and the old Class 1, Class 2 (etc.) racing can be simplified by an example: In say, a 62RB (Ratings Based) race you can have a Class 1 horse (a horse with only one win), a Class 2 horse (horse with two wins) etc. racing against each-other provided their "rating" doesn't exceed the level of the race, in this example, 62.

Ratings Based races bring together horses relative to their individual ratings and are free of any class restriction. The only 'restriction' on the eligibility for Ratings Based races is that nominated horses must be rated at or below the advertised rating. This allows horses to find suitable races based on their current form, compared to Class 1 to 6 races that hold horses in a particular class based on previous wins.

Some positives of RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) are that it provides a very simple and fair ballot plan with all RBH balloting in "ratings order". It is a ready reference guide for trainers and owners prior to nominations. Ie. A ratings based handicapping system with publicly displayed ratings and race scales will be advantageous to both owners and trainers in assessing the anticipated handicap of the horse prior to nominations. This allows trainers to more accurately place horses after determining the handicap of a horse relative to other horses across various classes. Also, RBH provides for improved customer service, productivity, information and understanding of handicapping methods.

In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".

Racehorses can fluctuate their form just like human athletes can. Unfortunately though, racehorses cannot talk. So we, as punters, are required to recognise signals and signs from horses at either their previous run, or pre-race, that indicate what stage physically and mentally they are at, in order to find a winner. For example, a horse charges home in a slowly run race early in it's preparation, this sends off obvious warning signs it is ready to win and may even be looking for extra distance. Another example might be if a horse leads, but is 'taken on' by other horses and given little peace. He may well fail in that particular race but then find a softer run up or near the lead at his next start and come out and win, at some value!

How to find the right race for a horse is crucial. An example: A horse may be a very good 1000m galloper yet this race is 1200m. This horse is the highest-rated runner in the race and may be favourite, however, realistically he has little chance of winning at a distance he is not comfortable at.

So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).

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